I could not agree more. This has been a sore spot for me for a very long time. In fact in my original post the stab at the Clintons was indirectly aimed at my in-laws. They LOVED the Clintons. (What do expect from Dems that were raised in Chicago during the original Daly reign.) As far as my in-laws were concerned the entire economic boom of the 90's was a direct result of the Bubba presidency. I have told them repeatedly that they are giving credit to the wrong Bill. Weather you like him or not, I think Bill Gates had more of an effect on the economy than did Bill Clinton.Battler said:
That said, because most people THINK presidents can help the economy, any economic good news has STRATEGIC consequences in the planning of both sides for next year's elections.
I don't know exactly how deep the doo doo is, but the analysts I read yesterday say that the majority of the "good numbers" we are now seeing on GDP are a one-shot result of the tax refund which is just borrowing money (raising the deficit) to give cash to consumers so it increases spending and improves the econmy's vital signs for the short term.Battler said:I think the economy is in deep doodoo. (Economic growth has come from even FURTHER credit expansion, people spending themselves DEEPER into a hole).
You are correct and the worst number I have seen in recent weeks is a "survey" of the sell/buy ratios of CEO's of major tech comapnies. because they are public officers of a company, their trading data is publicly released. The ratio of sell-to-buy of tech stocks among the CEO's of major tech companies is 160. For every dollar spent buying a tech stock, they sold $160 worth of tech stock. Given that they are in a unique position to see the horizon, that is horrible news. And the people who track it said it was the worst the ratio had ever gotten up to. Ergo, the near term outlook for the NASDAQ is pretty bleak.JTP said:I hate agreeing with Bountyhunter, but I do. We still have totally unrealistic P/E ratios, which means, historically, we are not yet primed for a "true" recovery. Last I looked the S&P still had a Price to Earnings ratio of 30, way to high. Couple that with the unrealistic movement of the NASDAQ, and I hope you folks have put your money in a "safe" place. We have some really big debt, and really low interest rates. Look at the effects on our economy after the Vietnam War, and contrast that with what you see today (economically only here!). I do not believe this recent rally is going to stick with us over the long run.