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Why is lead going up so much ? What's changed in the market place ?

I just spoke with Rena @ Valiant Bullets to place my semi-yr'ly order and she quoted me $34 m for 20,000 units with a wait of 3 to 4 months. Say's they just cannot get the lead.

The last time I place the order the price was $27 m. Pretty good increase.

Is lead the only options we have to try to save money ?

Anyother sources I need to take a look at ?
 

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When did you last order?

If it was last week, then that seems like a huge jump.

If it was last year, then that doesn't seem like as big of a jump.


I placed a large order from Cabela's several months ago for a lot of plated 9mm and have since started casting all of my 9mm lead due to the prices and supplies being the way they are.

If you really want to save money, you may want to consider casting. I'm not super fast - it takes me about 6 hours to cast and size/lube 1,000 9mm bullets. You do have to find your own source of lead, and you will pay for it in your time, but, much like reloading, it is just another hobby in and of itself.
 

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Kevin;

I guess my last order was about 8 months ago. But still $27 to $34 seems alittle high to me. Maybe, I've just had my head buried in the sand & not keeping up on the increases.
 

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Lead up

They realized every body was using them. Supply and demand. If you need some more just scrape some Toys for some.
 

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Cheaper prices may be on the horizon

It looks like it was more an issue of the commodity market driving up prices, coupled with the fact that two major lead refinerys had production issues:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/05/bloomberg/bxcom.php#end_main


"Current high prices are not fundamentally justified," Robin Bhar and Daniel Brebner, analysts in London with UBS, said in a report last week. "Traders and merchants report no actual physical shortage of metal."


Whelen
 

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The last year has been a killer for the lead market. High demand from emerging industrials and supply issues from the mines.

In Sept '06 I did a bulk buy of lead shot for reloading 12ga. Price then was $18.50 a bag. Saved a little but it wasn't a killer deal. Now if I can find a bag of lead for less than $40 I buy it.

A glimmer of hope is on the horizon. The issues with the mines are being solved and inventories are up. The spot market prices have been steadily dropping for the last couple months.

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/lead_historical.html
 

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lefty o said:
china is buying up all the lead, thats why the prices are going up. supply and demand.
China seems to want to put lead into everything. Recently I read an article that you can find high levels of lead in fake Xmas trees imported from China, in the Xmas string lights (it makes the wiring more flexible), tooth paste tubes, toys, the list goes on and on. Hopefully at some point it will hit the Chinese government/manufacturers in rejected consumer goods and they will stop. Then maybe the lead market will cool off. who knows?
 

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There are so many false rumors and outright lies about lead and copper, it's impossible to keep yourself knowledgable.

Currently, the highest demand for lead is in Europe. Not China or the USA. In fact, the demand for lead is down in the United States compared to the past five years. China is exporting lead. It's not buying it all up. Until the beginning of 2007, the government of China offered a subsidy on exports of lead and lead ore. It ended the subsidy, which caused buyers worldwide to stop buying Chinese lead in search of cheaper sources. Industries here in the U.S. used stockpiles and futures contracts to make up the slack, but those are mostly exhausted by now. It's just a matter of time until the market restabilizes. Undoubtedly it will stabilize at a higher cost, unless the Chinese government reinstates the subsidy. Meanwhile, you and I suffer.

Any simple explanations are probably insufficient to explain the complexity of real-world global markets.
 

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Note on Chinese use of lead compounds in consumer goods:
For it's own domestic market, China follows European protocols reducing lead compounds in its own consumer market. It only puts lead into export products to the United States because we have not yet adopted protocols limiting lead, chromium, and other heavy metals in consumer products.

In other words, they send the poisonous stuff to us because we keep buying it.
 

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My local indoor range isn't selling used brass to reloaders anymore, they are selling all the brass and lead to china, making nearly 10 times the amount they were making last year selling it back to the local reloaders.

China is most definatly buying up the worlds supplies of metals and oil.

They use lead in everything like it's going out of style, laughing all the way to the bank, I think they are actualy being creative finding more ways to add lead into everything they ship to the U.S.
 

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mr1911 said:
My local indoor range isn't selling used brass to reloaders anymore, they are selling all the brass and lead to china, making nearly 10 times the amount they were making last year selling it back to the local reloaders.

China is most definatly buying up the worlds supplies of metals and oil.

They use lead in everything like it's going out of style, laughing all the way to the bank, I think they are actualy being creative finding more ways to add lead into everything they ship to the U.S.
did you read this post, a couple up from yours?


There are so many false rumors and outright lies about lead and copper, it's impossible to keep yourself knowledgable.

Currently, the highest demand for lead is in Europe. Not China or the USA. In fact, the demand for lead is down in the United States compared to the past five years. China is exporting lead. It's not buying it all up. Until the beginning of 2007, the government of China offered a subsidy on exports of lead and lead ore. It ended the subsidy, which caused buyers worldwide to stop buying Chinese lead in search of cheaper sources. Industries here in the U.S. used stockpiles and futures contracts to make up the slack, but those are mostly exhausted by now. It's just a matter of time until the market restabilizes. Undoubtedly it will stabilize at a higher cost, unless the Chinese government reinstates the subsidy. Meanwhile, you and I suffer.

Any simple explanations are probably insufficient to explain the complexity of real-world global markets.
 

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Trigger Creep said:
Any simple explanations are probably insufficient to explain the complexity of real-world global markets.
Oh so true. Not just lead but all precious metals are in high demand.

Prime example. I'm a helicopter mechanic. My company has some parts supply issues with a particular helicopter manufactuer. The response from them set a precident in that they issued a letter for the field mechanics which nobody has done before. In a nutshell the problem was twofold. One is that worldwide demand for rotorcraft is taxing thier manufacturing capacity. Second is that precious metals, titanium in particular, is in short supply.

A French manufacturer of rotorcraft turbine engines, Turbomeca, went shopping for titanium with 25 million in cash (or in Francs, Euros or whatever) to buy the raw material to make the rotating components of the engines. They came home empty handed.

Carbon fiber, although not a precious metal, is only manufactured by a select few to aircraft specifications. Airbus in the A380 has reserved 60% of the worlds aviation carbon fiber. Delays in the A380 program has eased the supply of carbon fiber but if Airbus gets it going, supplies will get very tight very quick.

The rotorcraft world is in a boom like I've never seen in the 28 years I've been in it. Let's say you want to purchase some brand shiny new Bell 407 or Eurocopter EC135 and you simply step in line to order one. You will get it .... two years from now. The only way to get one quicker is to buy out someones position in the production line. So not only have you chunked out the 1.7 million for the 407, or 3.5 million for the EC you've wrote a check just for the priviledge to be ahead of someone in the line in production deliveries.

The world market is nutz and I need a secretary just to keep up with it.
 

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Of course China is in the position to export lead as they bought out a major lead mine operation in Canada about a year ago which resulted in the wave of price increases right after they diverted the output to their use and now have the ability to affect the market. Doe Run still has some of their mines shut down due to EPA regs. But is still the main refiner in this country. Lets face facts, with a world population of 6-7 billion (up from 3 billion in the 70's) The demand for everything is going up and who can keep track of it all? I certainly can't. Lead prices on the secondary market (used recycled lead) is still volitile and high priced.
 
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